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Amerikansk Investeringsrådgivningsfirma: "Vi nærmer os Peak ev... |  |  |
| 02-05-2011 00:48 | Amerikansk Investeringsrådgivningsfirma: "Vi nærmer os Peak everything" |
Thomas Meinert Larsen
(16)
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For de særligt interesserede, hermed til orientering - denne nyligt udsendte analyse fra et Amerikansk Investerings rådgivnings-firma.
Link til hele analysen: http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf
Herunder summary of the Summary
The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.
Summary
Until about 1800, our species had no safety margin and lived, like other animals, up to the limit of the food supply, ebbing and fl owing in population.
From about 1800 on the use of hydrocarbons allowed for an explosion in energy use, in food supply, and, through the creation of surpluses, a dramatic increase in wealth and scientifi c progress.
Since 1800, the population has surged from 800 million to 7 billion, on its way to an estimated 8 billion, at minimum.
The rise in population, the ten-fold increase in wealth in developed countries, and the current explosive growth in developing countries have eaten rapidly into our fi nite resources of hydrocarbons and metals, fertilizer, available land, and water.
Now, despite a massive increase in fertilizer use, the growth in crop yields per acre has declined from 3.5% in the 1960s to 1.2% today. There is little productive new land to bring on and, as people get richer, they eat more grain-intensive meat. Because the population continues to grow at over 1%, there is little safety margin.
The problems of compounding growth in the face of fi nite resources are not easily understood by optimistic, short-term-oriented, and relatively innumerate humans (especially the political variety).
The fact is that no compound growth is sustainable. If we maintain our desperate focus on growth, we will run out of everything and crash. We must substitute qualitative growth for quantitative growth.
But Mrs. Market is helping, and right now she is sending us the Mother of all price signals. The prices of all important commodities except oil declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002 until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II.
Statistically, most commodities are now so far away from their former downward trend that it makes it very probable that the old trend has changed – that there is in fact a Paradigm Shift – perhaps the most important economic event since the Industrial Revolution.
Climate change is associated with weather instability, but the last year was exceptionally bad. Near term it will surely get less bad.
Excellent long-term investment opportunities in resources and resource effi ciency are compromised by the high chance of an improvement in weather next year and by the possibility that China may stumble.
From now on, price pressure and shortages of resources will be a permanent feature of our lives. This will increasingly slow down the growth rate of the developed and developing world and put a severe burden on poor countries.
We all need to develop serious resource plans, particularly energy policies. There is little time to waste.
Tidligere brugernavn: Denklimabekymrede
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| 02-05-2011 09:53 | |
Kosmos
(2585)
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The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.
- skribenten synes at have et vist åndeligt fællesskab med 'Rom-klubben'(?), se fx. dette.
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| 02-05-2011 10:04 | |
Morten Riber
(668)
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Jammen, hvad skal man sige til det. Nogle rådgivere arbejdende i et rådgivningsfirma i USA har pludselig set lyst og fattet at alting ikke komer automatisk af sig selv. Bevar mig vel. Det er da fint at en gruppe mennesker således er vågnet af deres tornerosesøvn, meen så så er beivenheden da heller ikke større.
Personligt vil jeg gerne advare mod at håbe for meget på at de vil starte en lavine og opnå at vække alle der andre der sover tornerosesøvn, for det er deres retorik slet ikke god nok til. Sådan som de fører deres budskab kan de højest opnå at skræmme en række mennesker, og det er jo på ingen måde det samme som at få folk til at forså noget som helst.
Ville de istedet for forsøge at vække folks nysgerrighed i stedet for deres angst var det en helt anden sag. Så kunne det måske ligefrem føre noget godt med sig, så... 
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| 02-05-2011 10:57 | |
kulden-varmen
(1169)
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Det er i særlig grad USA som rammes. Da råvare priserne regnes i USD og den falder i værdi.
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Deltag i debatten som aktiv debattør og del din holdning til emnet Amerikansk Investeringsrådgivningsfirma: "Vi nærmer os Peak everything" med forummets mange læsere. |
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