Global Cooling

Birger Wedendahl skrev:
Der går iøvrigt rygter om at Professor i geologi Ole Humlum har forladt klimadebatten for en periode idet han er blevet tilbudt jobbet som klummeskribent på en lægebrevkasse .

Birger Wedendahl skrev: Deres klimablog er i dyb krise pga Lidegaards optræden med Carsten Jensen. Lidegaards ekstremt alarmistiske dommedagsprofetier har ført til voldsomme interne diskussioner hvor vores længe savnede CBH spiller en helt central rolle.

...men hvad er det med Lidegaard og optræden sammen med HamCarstenJensen?

Hvad mener i om den måde Carsten Jensen bruger argumentet om at forandringerne kommer fra børnene?

Den alt andet end klimaskeptiske radiostation bringer et interview med Johs. Willis fra Schripps Institute og Dr. Kevin E. Trenbert National Centre for Athmospheric research.
Interviewet kan høres på npr.org

Trenberth afslutter konkluderende at vi skal tilbage til tegnebordene (drawingboards) og revurdere teorier, modeller og data

...it's worth going over the saga of the ocean heat content (OHC) trends in the literature over the last 8 years...

....So what does this all mean? The first issue is tied to sea level rise. The larger long term trend in ocean warming reported here makes it much easier to reconcile the sea level estimates from thermal expansion with the actual rises....

This isn't going to be the last word on OHC trends, and different groups are going to be publishing their own versions of this analyses relatively soon and updates to the most recent years are still forthcoming. But the big picture is that ocean heat content has indeed been increasing in recent decades, just like the models said it should.

A lot has been made of a paper (Lyman et al, 2006) that appeared last year that claimed that the oceans had, contrary to expectation, cooled over the period 2003-2005. At the time, we (correctly) pointed out that this result was going to be hard to reconcile with continued increases in sea level rise (driven in large part by thermal expansion effects), and that there may still be issues with way that the new ARGO floats were being incorporated into the ocean measurement network. Now it seems as if there is a problem in the data and in the latest analysis, the cooling has disappeared.

In contrast to this molehill, there is an excellent story about how the scientific community really deals with serious mismatches between theory, models and data. That piece concerns the 'ocean cooling' story that was all the rage a year or two ago. An initial analysis of a new data source (the Argo float network) had revealed a dramatic short term cooling of the oceans over only 3 years. The problem was that this didn't match the sea level data, nor theoretical expectations. Nonetheless, the paper was published (somewhat undermining claims that the peer-review system is irretrievably biased) to great acclaim in sections of the blogosphere, and to more muted puzzlement elsewhere. With the community's attention focused on this issue, it wasn't however long before problems turned up in the Argo floats themselves, but also in some of the other measurement devices - particularly XBTs. It took a couple of years for these things to fully work themselves out, but the most recent analyses show far fewer of the artifacts that had plagued the ocean heat content analyses in the past. A classic example in fact, of science moving forward on the back of apparent mismatches. Unfortunately, the resolution ended up favoring the models over the initial data reports, and so the whole story is horribly disappointing to some.

En Trenberth kan vel også blive klogere, spændende er det ihvertfald

Til diverse læsere som ville lære mere omkring Argo data sagaen, oceanernes 'afkøling' osv.

"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus

Denne figur (craigh Loehle) viser hvordan varmebalancen for de samlede oceaner har udviklet sig i den periode der er foretaget Argomålinger. Varmebalancen måles i joule så det er ikke temperatur der er angivet på yaksen men joule, altså varmeenheder.

I såfald har vi en situation, hvor globale temperatur af atmosfæren er voksende samtidig med ocenernes temperatur er faldende

In 2004, Willis published a time series of ocean heat content showing that the temperature of the upper layers of ocean increased between 1993-2003.

In 2006, he co-piloted a follow-up study led by John Lyman at Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle that updated the time series for 2003-2005. Surprisingly, the ocean seemed to have cooled.

Willis described the results as a "speed bump" on the way to global warming, evidence that even as the climate warmed due to greenhouse gases, it would still have variation. The message didn't get through to everyone, though. On blogs and radio talk shows, global warming deniers cited the results as proof that global warming wasn't real and that climate scientists didn't know what they were doing.

For nearly a year after the 2006 ocean cooling paper was published, nothing obvious turned up. It wasn't until that next year of data came in that the cooling in the Atlantic became so large and so widespread that Willis accepted the cooling trend for what is was: an unambiguous sign that something in the observations was "clearly not right."

Thursday evening in February 2007: "I think ocean cooling isn't real."

"I have said from the beginning that the fact that the long-term trends in models and observations do agree so well is what is most important...Even if these ups and downs don't change the long-term destination of global warming, they could reveal more detail about what kind of ride we can expect."

Lige siden man i 2003 smed de første Argo målerobotter ud fra skibe overalt i oceanerne har de målt afkøling, afkøling og atter afkøling.

Argo målinger der viser afkøling hele vejen ned gennem vandsøjlen til 2000 meters dybde gennem hele måleperioden er med andre ord et præcist udtryk for at kloden som helhed er inde i en periode med global afkøling.

Jeg kan ikke tror at du har læst alle 5 sider – der står nemlig stort set det samme som de links jeg henvist til

The global ocean heat content trend reconstructed by the Global Oceanographic Data Archeology and Rescue Project showed an overall increase from 1955 to 2003, but there were large unexplained swings

ON Tuesday, I suggested at this blog that I was not convinced by a story from Josh Willis, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, explaining why and how he corrected data showing global ocean cooling. The title of my blog post suggested that Dr Willis had changed the data to fit output from computer models. Dr Willis has responded, via Fred Singer, explaining that the correction was made, not on the basis of computer output, but on the basis of high quality temperature and pressure measurement from ocean buoys.

ikke uinteressant at de peger i samme retning

Til mig ser det ud som om trenden (tendensen) i den 'Ocean Heat Content' graf Kosmos har vist ovenfor peger opad

Måling af ændringer i havenes varmebalance muliggjort med Argo, er en langt bedre proxy (indirekte målestok) for global opvarmning end måling af ændringer i den globale gennemsnitstemperatur, reduktion af havis, gletcherfremstød, orkaner, isbjørne, trækfugle o.s.v.

Havene er blevet koldere i perioden 2003- 2009.
Lige siden man i 2003 smed de første Argo målerobotter ud fra skibe overalt i oceanerne har de målt afkøling, afkøling og atter afkøling.
NPR (Amerikansk nyhedsbureau og radiostation) bringer nyheden (marts 2009).Argo leverer dokumentationen (mere end 3000 frit flydende målestationer registrereårligt mere end 100.000 temperatur profilmålinger i ned til 2000m dybde )
...
Kfl. Du har åbentbart endnu ikke fattet hvad både Kosmos og jeg har forsøgt at forklare både rick og dig, nemlig at Argobøjerne selv efter rettelser i matrialet viser afkøling fra dag et.

Birger Wedendahl skrev
Dine automathenvisninger til sceptic climate giver ikke plads til megen selvstændig tankegang.

kfl skrev:
Hvis du vil angribe teorien om den globale opvarmning, skal du satse på at modbevise CO2 -teorien ud fra en fysisk/kemisk argumentation. Det ville være meget mere effektivt end at angribe atmosfærens og oceanernes temperaturudvikling.

Lad os vente at se indtil de første peer reviewede artikler komme frem i løbet af det næste år, hvor Argo-målingerne er analyseret og kalibreret

Crigh Loehler er den førende forsker for National Council for Air og Stream Improvement, som blev etableret i 1943 af papirmasse- og papirindustrien for at til veje bringe teknisk assistance til industriens målsætning om at reducere dens forurening med papirmasse affaldsstoffer.

Tak for henvisning til Carig Loehlers artikel, som jeg desværre ikke har adgang til