Ny rapport fra "Scientific Committee on Antarctic Rearch"

This volume provides a comprehensive, up-to-date account of how the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until the present day. It also considers how the Antarctic environment may change over the next century in a world where greenhouse gas concentrations are much higher than occurred over the last few centuries.

One hundred experts in Antarctic science have contributed and drafts of the manuscript were reviewed by over 200 scientists.

Currents and waves in the global ocean and the atmosphere ensure that Antarctica is affected by what happens elsewhere on the planet. Equally, ocean and atmospheric processes ensure that what happens in Antarctica may affect the rest of the world. It is the world's freezer.

This volume is a contribution to the International Polar Year 2007-2008. It is also a contribution to the goals of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and in particular to its Climate and Cryosphere programme (CliC), of which SCAR is a co-sponsor. In addition it is intended that it be made available to attendees at the meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December 2009, and subsequently to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Concluding remarks

79. The climate of the high latitude areas is more variable than that of tropical or mid-latitude regions and has experienced a huge range of conditions over the last few million years. The snapshot we have of the climate during the instrumental period is tiny in the long history of the continent, and separation of natural climate variability from anthropogenic influences is difficult.

However, the effects of increased greenhouse gases and decreases in stratospheric ozone are already evident. The effects of the expected increase in greenhouses gases over the next century, if they continue to rise at the current rate, will be remarkable because of their speed. Removal of the cooling effect of the ozone hole as it diminishes in extent will exacerbate the problem.

We can make reasonably broad estimates of how quantities such as temperature, precipitation and sea ice extent might change, and consider the possible impact on marine and terrestrial biota. We cannot yet say with confidence how the large ice sheets of Antarctic will respond, but observed recent rapid changes give cause for concern – especially for the stability of parts of West Antarctica.