PART 2/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

Figure 13 reveals that the differences that have developed between the GISS and HadCRUT global temperatures during the past decade are due primarily to the extension of the GISS analysis into regions excluded from the HadCRUT analysis.

Confounding expectations of a monotonically warming globe, the average warming rate from 2000 to 2008 subsided by almost an order of magnitude, and temperatures in 2008 were cooler than in 2002. These varying 'trends' in global temperatures arise in part from the influences of solar irradiance and other natural processes, which must be comprehensively assessed in order to properly ascertain Earth's response to the underlying anthropogenic influence.

the differences that have developed between the GISS and HadCRUT global temperatures during the past decade are due primarily to the extension of the GISS analysis into regions excluded from the HadCRUT analysis

Frank Lansner skrev:
Så er der snakken om det varmeste år. Hvad er varmest, 2010 eller 1998?

Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.

"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a microtrend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.

Opgørelserne tyder på, at 2010 samlet bliver det varmeste år siden observationerne begyndte for cirka 150 år siden. Efter de foreliggende data (første 11 måneder for NCDC og GISS og første 10 måneder for CRU) ligger 2010 på en førsteplads hos alle tre institutioner, efterfulgt af 2005, 1998 og 2003. Der var imidlertid ikke La Niña i de andre rekordår, og det gør dette års varme meget usædvanlig.

rick_uk skrev:
Der er et interessant lille citat her fra DMI nyheder November 2010 - rekordvarm trods et køligt Stillehav

Kig nu på 1998. Der er såmænd en opstartende La Nina nøjagtigt som i år

Kig nu på 1998. Der er såmænd en opstartende La Nina nøjagtigt som i år.

Såmænd også en opstartende la Nina i 2007, El Nino år.

The most recent (August-September) MEI value shows a continued drop from earlier this year, reaching -1.99, or 0.18 sigma below last month's value, and 3.39 standard deviations below February-March, a record-fast six-month drop for any time of year, while slowing down a bit at the shorter time scales. The most recent MEI rank (lowest) is clearly below the 10%-tile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings for this season. One has to go back to July-August 1955 to find lower MEI values for any time of year.

Its an index, not a temperature anomaly:...

*******GISS ******** HADCRUT**** RSS*********UAH
1998 ***0,716666667 *0,526333333 *0,576666667 *0,515
2010 ***0,866666667 *0,469833333 *0,514666667 *0,515

Tendensen er at de globale gennemssnits temp. har været stigende over de sidste 30 år...

Kosmos skrev:
- dog uden specielt iøjnefaldende (positiv) korrelation med atmosfærens CO2-indhold!

Theis skrev:

Frank Lansner skrev:
Så er der snakken om det varmeste år. Hvad er varmest, 2010 eller 1998?

Man kan ikke lade være med at more sig over, hvor optagede klimaskeptikerne er af 1998. Frank, 1, 8 og 9-tallet på dit tastatur må være godt slidte :-)

Frank Lansner skrev:
Theis, hvorfor tror du at de objektive forfattere bag din grafik herover ikke går længere tilbage end 1950´erne??

Kan vi blive enige om at 1930´erne... må siges at være TEMMELIGT relevante her?

Frank, jeg synes dit indlæg fra i går er ret afslørende. Du viser tre forskellige målingers top 10 varmeste november. Af disse 30 datapunkter, er det kun UAH, der kan finde en eneste november før årtusindskiftet, der er på top 10-listen.

Du må kom med noget dokumentation til hvor klima videnskaben lover at klodens temp ville følge atmosfærens CO2 koncentration presis!

...according to the GISS model predictions, there should be approximately 5.88 * 10**22 Joules more heat in the upper 700 meters of the global ocean at the end of 2008 than were present at the beginning of 2003.
For the observations to come into agreement with the GISS model prediction by the end of 2012, for example, there would have to be an accumulation 9.8 * 10** 22 Joules of heat over just the next four years. This requires a heating rate over the next 4 years into the upper 700 meters of the ocean of 2.45 * 10**22 Joules per year, which corresponds to a radiative imbalance of ~1.50 Watts per square meter.
This rate of heating would have to be about 2 1/2 times higher than the 0.60 Watts per meter squared that Jim Hansen reported for the period 1993 to 2003.

While the time period for this descrepancy with the GISS model is relatively short, the question should be asked as to the number of years required to reject this model as having global warming predictive skill, if this large difference between the observations and the GISS model persists.

FIGURE 2 | Compared in (a) are observed monthly mean global temperatures (black) and an empirical model (orange) that combines four different influences. In (b) the individual contributions of these influences are shown, namely ENSO (purple), volcanic aerosols (blue), solar irradiance (green) and anthropogenic effects (red). Together the four influences explain 76% (r2) of the variance in the global temperature observations. Future scenarios are shown as dashed lines.

Jeg vil gerne gentage min opfordring til at læse Judith Leans udmærkede offentligt tilgængelige artikel, som kan downloades fra:...

Og Bo godt at du får med at vi stadig ikke kan matche det varmeste 20-år på Grønland. Det er den slags redelighed der får en Bo Vinther til at skinne flot i klimadebaten, TAK det er tiltrængt :-)))))

But until recently, an influence of solar variability on climate, whether through cycles or trends, was usually dismissed because climate simulations with (primarily) simple energy balance models indicated that responses to the decadal solar cycle would be so small as to be undetectable in observations.3 However, in the past decade modeling studies have found both resonant responses and positive feedbacks in the ocean-atmosphere system that may amplify the response to solar irradiance variations.

Today, solar cycles and trends are recognized as important components of natural climate variability on decadal to centennial time
scales. Understanding solar-terrestrial linkages is requisite for the comprehensive understanding of Earth's evolving environment. The attribution of present-day climate change, interpretation of changes prior to the industrial epoch, and forecast of future decadal climate change necessitate quantitative understanding of how, when, where, and why natural variability, including by the Sun, may exceed, obscure or mitigate anthropogenic changes .

As the only external climate forcing directly specified independently of climate models, solar irradiance variations promise a touchstone for advancing understanding of climate change. When climate models can
reproduce the multiple, complex responses embodied in the empirical evidence, confidence will increase in their ability to simulate climate changes in response to other radiative forcings, including by greenhouse
gases.