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Fingerprinting and climate prediction uncertainty

Fingerprinting and climate prediction uncertainty25-10-2021 16:26
John Peter
Jeg synes at jeg vil fejre min retur til klimadebat med at aabne en debat om et par artikler jeg har fundet i UK Global Warming Policy Foundation
In his new paper, statistician William M Briggs surveys the field of climate attribution studies, in which changes in the weather are blamed on humankind. In particular, he looks at the recent pronouncements on that subject by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Sixth Assessment Report.

Briggs conclusion is that climate scientists are far too confident in their conclusions:

og paa samme tid 'a paper' af Ross McKitrick om fingerprinting
Earlier this year, the economist Ross McKitrick published a new paper about an important methodology used in attributing changes in weather events to mankind. McKitrick observed that the so-called "optimal fingerprinting" methodology, which has been used in numerous studies and has been behind dozens of newspaper headlines about mankind's influence on the atmosphere, was statistically erroneous. The implications of the findings are therefore potentially profound.

Begge er kvalificerede statisticians og med mit begraensede kendskab ser det ud til at de har fat i noget og maaske en debat af kvalificerede danske deltagere her kan komme med meninger om hvad de skriver.
Her er en god en fra BBC i dag
The restrictions imposed around the world during the Covid pandemic saw an overall decline in emissions of CO2 of 5.6%.

So why hasn't that fall been echoed in atmospheric concentrations - which are the subject of this latest data from the WMO?

There are a number of factors involved.

Around half of emissions from human activity are taken up by trees, lands and oceans. But the absorbing ability of these sinks can vary hugely, depending on temperatures, rainfall and other factors.

Saa 'head IPCC win and tail we sceptics lose'. Det er umuligt at taenke at vi er ikke paa vej mod Armageddon.
Deltag aktivt i debatten Fingerprinting and climate prediction uncertainty:

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The Science of Prediction323-11-2007 23:39
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