Klima Kampen

SRJ skrev:
John, du sammenligner en dag med gennemsnittet for 1 dag i perioden 1979-2000.

Men det er jo ikke sådan at hver eneste dag nu skal være varmere end gennemsnittet i din sammenligningsperiode.

Hvorfor sammenligner du ikke 1-dags gennemsnittet 1979-2000 med 1 dags gennemsnittet 2001-2020?

John Niclasen skrev:

Men det er jo ikke sådan at hver eneste dag nu skal være varmere end gennemsnittet i din sammenligningsperiode.

Rigtigt. Hvor mange dage skal være koldere eller lig med gennemsnittet for perioden, før hypotesen er falsificeret?

SRJ skriver:
Nu har jeg lige set lidt mere på det. Kortet viser temperatur-anomalien ifht en basisperiode, som her er 1979-2000.
Men drivhushypotesen falsiceres altså ikke at at der er enkelte dage som er koldere end basisperioden.

...
Klikker man på fanen klima kan man lave en månedlig tidsserie for temperaturen i den antarktiske region.
...

Antarktis, hele området omkring Sydpolen, har ikke varmet op i 40 år.

Jesper-Midtfyn skrev:
Der har også været en klar temperaturmæssig tendens på den geografiske sydpol i de seneste år.

UlrikePielmeier skrev:

Jesper-Midtfyn skrev:
Der har også været en klar temperaturmæssig tendens på den geografiske sydpol i de seneste år.

Nå, hvis du siger det. Neumayer har i hvert fald ikke set nogen warming i 30 år:
https://legacy.bas.ac.uk/met/READER/surface/Neumayer.All.temperature.html

Using a combination of satellite sensors, scientists recently found that Denman Glacier has been retreating both above and below the water line. That one glacier in East Antarctica holds as much ice as half of West Antarctica, so scientists are concerned about its stability.

From 1996 to 2018, the grounding line along the western flank of Denman Glacier retreated 5.4 kilometers (3.4 miles), according to a new study by scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Irvine (UCI). The grounding line is the point at which a glacier last touches the seafloor before it begins to float.

Peter Villadsen skrev:

Using a combination of satellite sensors, scientists recently found that Denman Glacier has been retreating both above and below the water line. That one glacier in East Antarctica holds as much ice as half of West Antarctica, so scientists are concerned about its stability.

From 1996 to 2018, the grounding line along the western flank of Denman Glacier retreated 5.4 kilometers (3.4 miles), according to a new study by scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Irvine (UCI). The grounding line is the point at which a glacier last touches the seafloor before it begins to float.

Vi er her i øst Antarktis. Det område, der hidtil har været betragtet som meget stabilt.
Det er meget svært ikke at tilskrive det øgede temperaturer i ocean/luften.

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-concerned-as-denman-glacier-retreats-both-above-and-below-the-water-line/?fbclid=IwAR0hlzQMbyvOaAq4LvmUpOXBzN_T6790jnHlKPcu5uTa2-o01kqhIIZH420

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate. With no continental barriers, it distributes climate signals among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans through its fast-flowing, energetic, and deep-reaching dominant current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The unusual dynamics of this current, in conjunction with energetic atmospheric and ice conditions, make the Southern Ocean a key region for connecting the surface ocean with the world ocean's deep seas. Recent examinations of global ocean temperature show that the Southern Ocean plays a major role in global ocean heat uptake and storage. Since 2006, an estimated 60%–90% of global ocean heat content change associated with global warming is based in the Southern Ocean. But the warming of its water masses is inhomogeneous. While the upper 1,000 m of the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are warming rapidly, at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade, the surface sub­polar seas south of this region are not warming or are slightly cooling. However, subpolar abyssal waters are warming at a substantial rate of ~0.05°C per decade due to the formation of bottom waters on the Antarctic continental shelves. Although the processes at play in this warming and their regional distribution are beginning to become clear, the specific mechanisms associated with wind change, eddy activity, and ocean-ice interaction remain areas of active research, and substantial challenges persist to representing them accurately in climate models.

Comparing temperature measurements obtained at the end of the twentieth century or early in the twenty-first century with temperature records of previous decades is unambiguous: the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has warmed at all depths in the upper 2,000 m at a more rapid rate than the globally averaged ocean warming (Figure 4a,b; Gille, 2008 ; Böning et al., 2008; Giglio and Johnson, 2017). This long-term trend agrees with warming observed during the last decade, when profiling floats greatly improved spatial sampling (e.g., Giglio and Johnson, 2017). The water masses north and within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade in the upper 1 km (Figures 1 and 4).

In stark contrast with the rapid warming observed within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the surface ocean poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has warmed very slowly or has possibly even cooled slightly (Figure 1; Armour et al., 2016). The weak warming of the southernmost surface region of the Southern Ocean is consistent with the observed and concomitant increase of Antarctic sea ice area (Vaughan et al., 2013). South of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the paucity of observations under the surface layer discourages any comment on long-term change, but there is some suggestion that heat might have accumulated right below the surface layer (Lecomte et al., 2017). Close to the Antarctic continent, over the continental shelf and slope, there are indications that the old and relatively warm waters (CDW; see Figure 1) have slightly warmed over the past decades, associated with a shoaling of the upper layer, which allowed CDW greater access to continental shelves (Schmidtko et al., 2014). This CDW warming and increased access to the continental shelf has very important consequences for basal melt of the ice shelves that flank the Antarctic continent.

Figure 3. (a–b) Ocean heat content change above 2,000 m depth with respect to the temperature climatology for (a) the Northern Hemisphere, and (b) the Southern Hemisphere. (c) Zonally integrated ocean heat content (1018 J yr−1). Curves show estimates based on different observation-based products from different institutions: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (blue curves), International Pacific Research Center (red curves), and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (green curves). The mean estimates are shown as black curves. The gray envelope denotes one standard deviation around the mean. Adapted from Llovel and Terray (2016). > High res figure

Peter Villadsen skrev:
Det er i det sydlige ocean, det største optag af varme sker.

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate. With no continental barriers, it distributes climate signals among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans through its fast-flowing, energetic, and deep-reaching dominant current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The unusual dynamics of this current, in conjunction with energetic atmospheric and ice conditions, make the Southern Ocean a key region for connecting the surface ocean with the world ocean's deep seas. Recent examinations of global ocean temperature show that the Southern Ocean plays a major role in global ocean heat uptake and storage. Since 2006, an estimated 60%–90% of global ocean heat content change associated with global warming is based in the Southern Ocean. But the warming of its water masses is inhomogeneous. While the upper 1,000 m of the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are warming rapidly, at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade, the surface sub­polar seas south of this region are not warming or are slightly cooling. However, subpolar abyssal waters are warming at a substantial rate of ~0.05°C per decade due to the formation of bottom waters on the Antarctic continental shelves. Although the processes at play in this warming and their regional distribution are beginning to become clear, the specific mechanisms associated with wind change, eddy activity, and ocean-ice interaction remain areas of active research, and substantial challenges persist to representing them accurately in climate models.

Comparing temperature measurements obtained at the end of the twentieth century or early in the twenty-first century with temperature records of previous decades is unambiguous: the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has warmed at all depths in the upper 2,000 m at a more rapid rate than the globally averaged ocean warming (Figure 4a,b; Gille, 2008 ; Böning et al., 2008; Giglio and Johnson, 2017). This long-term trend agrees with warming observed during the last decade, when profiling floats greatly improved spatial sampling (e.g., Giglio and Johnson, 2017). The water masses north and within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade in the upper 1 km (Figures 1 and 4).

In stark contrast with the rapid warming observed within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the surface ocean poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has warmed very slowly or has possibly even cooled slightly (Figure 1; Armour et al., 2016). The weak warming of the southernmost surface region of the Southern Ocean is consistent with the observed and concomitant increase of Antarctic sea ice area (Vaughan et al., 2013). South of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the paucity of observations under the surface layer discourages any comment on long-term change, but there is some suggestion that heat might have accumulated right below the surface layer (Lecomte et al., 2017). Close to the Antarctic continent, over the continental shelf and slope, there are indications that the old and relatively warm waters (CDW; see Figure 1) have slightly warmed over the past decades, associated with a shoaling of the upper layer, which allowed CDW greater access to continental shelves (Schmidtko et al., 2014). This CDW warming and increased access to the continental shelf has very important consequences for basal melt of the ice shelves that flank the Antarctic continent.

Så det sydlige ocean er i høj grad påvirket af global opvarmning forårsaget af menneskets udledninger af drivhusgasser.

Læs selv videre her:
https://tos.org/oceanography/article/southern-ocean-warming

Figure 3. (a–b) Ocean heat content change above 2,000 m depth with respect to the temperature climatology for (a) the Northern Hemisphere, and (b) the Southern Hemisphere. (c) Zonally integrated ocean heat content (1018 J yr−1). Curves show estimates based on different observation-based products from different institutions: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (blue curves), International Pacific Research Center (red curves), and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (green curves). The mean estimates are shown as black curves. The gray envelope denotes one standard deviation around the mean. Adapted from Llovel and Terray (2016). > High res figure

John Niclasen skrev:
I hvor lang tid skal polerne undlade at varme op, før hypotesen om katastrofal menneskeskabt global opvarmning grundet udledning af CO2 er falsificeret?

Antarktis, hele området omkring Sydpolen, har ikke varmet op i 40 år.

Hele den sydlige halvkugle har en 'gennemsnitstemperatur' under 'normalen'.

Kort via: climatereanalyzer.org

Peter Villadsen skrev:

John Niclasen skrev:
I hvor lang tid skal polerne undlade at varme op, før hypotesen om katastrofal menneskeskabt global opvarmning grundet udledning af CO2 er falsificeret?

Antarktis, hele området omkring Sydpolen, har ikke varmet op i 40 år.

Hele den sydlige halvkugle har en 'gennemsnitstemperatur' under 'normalen'.

Kort via: climatereanalyzer.org

De professionelle ser på gennemsnitstemperaturer over årtier for at finde trenden.
Gerne længere perioder, men Antarktis er desværre ikke kendetegnet ved mange målepunkter over lang tid.
Pseudo videnskab er ikke den rigtige vej til at blive oplyst.

UlrikePielmeier skrev:

Peter Villadsen skrev:

John Niclasen skrev:
I hvor lang tid skal polerne undlade at varme op, før hypotesen om katastrofal menneskeskabt global opvarmning grundet udledning af CO2 er falsificeret?

Antarktis, hele området omkring Sydpolen, har ikke varmet op i 40 år.

Hele den sydlige halvkugle har en 'gennemsnitstemperatur' under 'normalen'.

Kort via: climatereanalyzer.org

De professionelle ser på gennemsnitstemperaturer over årtier for at finde trenden.
Gerne længere perioder, men Antarktis er desværre ikke kendetegnet ved mange målepunkter over lang tid.
Pseudo videnskab er ikke den rigtige vej til at blive oplyst.

Ah bah, nix. Det er altså den ringeste undskyldning længe. Tyskerne har målt siden 50erne og der er bare ikke en warming trend at spore på de antarktiske stationer. Og fortæl mig ikke at tyskerne ikke er fans af global warming spammet. Det er de søreme.