Klimarealister: Myten om europæisk tørke ved Eyvind Dekaa

Det hævdes ofte, at den globale opvarmning har medført forøget tørke, bl.a. i Europa. Klimaforandringer er jo normalt altid til det værre.

Nu har forskere i et nyt studie påvist, at der ikke er tale om hverken mere eller mindre tørke i Europa i perioden 1850 – 2018. Der er store udsving fra år til år, både lokalt og i hele området, men ikke nogen statistisk udvikling over længere tid.

Den danske varme og tørre sommer i 2018 blev udlagt som "bevis" på klimaforandringer, og den gang blev det spået, at sådan ville det blive i de kommende år. Hvis man kigger ud af vinduet i disse dage, må det vist konkluderes, at der ikke er meget "klimaforandringer" at se.

Key messages

Annual precipitation since 1960 shows an increasing trend of up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe, and a decrease of up to 90 mm per decade in some parts of southern Europe. At mid-latitudes no significant changes in annual precipitation have been observed. Mean summer precipitation has significantly decreased by up to 20 mm per decade in most of southern Europe, while significant increases of up to 18 mm per decade have been recorded in parts of northern Europe.

Projected changes in precipitation vary substantially across regions and seasons. Annual precipitation is generally projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe. The projected decrease in southern Europe is strongest in the summer.

Summary Observational records from 1950 onwards and climate projections for the 21st century provide evidence that droughts are a recurrent climate feature in large parts of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean, but also in western, south-eastern and central Europe. Trends over the past 60 years show an increasing frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in these regions, while a negative trend has been observed in north-eastern Europe. With a changing climate, this tendency is likely to be reinforced during the 21st century, affecting a wide range of socioeconomic sectors.

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Copernicus is the European Union's Earth Observation Programme, looking at our planet and its environment for the ultimate benefit of all European citizens. It offers information services based on satellite Earth Observation and in situ (non-space) data.

The Programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission. It is implemented in partnership with the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan.

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