PART 10/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
Det er da meget let at dokumentere følgende:

At den største biodiversitet findes i troperne.
At den største frodighed (dvs. den kraftigste plantevækst) findes i troperne.
At det højest høstudbytte pr. ha. pr. år findes i troperne hvor man kan høste ris 3 gange pr. år.
At der er mange europæer og amerikaner, som er rejst til rige arabiske olie-starter for at arbejde.
At det ofte er over 40 grader om sommeren i mange af de arabiske olie starter.
At de europæer og amerikanere, som arbejde i disse oliestarter, har det godt, selvom sommertemperature ofte er over 40 grader.
At det er bedre at bo i et rigt og velfungerende land end i et fattigt land.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
@ Peter Villadsen

Du er binde gal. Global opvarmning foregår som bekendt meget langsomt. Det vil sige under 1 grad pr. århundred.

Men der er jo ingen temperaturstigning på 70 % af jordens overflade nemlig oceanerne hvor overfladen er varmet sølle 0,25 grad på 60 år.

der er store lokale forskelle.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
@ Peter Villadsen

Problemet er, at du er låst fast i din opfattelse af, at AGW er en kæmpe katastrofe. At du (bevist eller ubevist) sætter lighedstegn imellem AGW og CAGW. Det holder bare ikke.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
@ Peter Villadsen

Problemet er, at du er låst fast i din opfattelse af, at AGW er en kæmpe katastrofe. At du (bevist eller ubevist) sætter lighedstegn imellem AGW og CAGW. Det holder bare ikke

Med andre ord, så må du nødvendigvis mene, at fremover vil mange flere mennesker komme til at miste livet p.g.a. naturkatastrofer. Ellers giver dine udsagn ingen mening. Herved sætter du lighedstegn imellem AGW og CAGW.

Global mean temperatures will continue to rise over the 21st
century if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue unabated. Under the assumptions of the concentration-driven RCPs, global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100, relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the 5 to 95% range of the CMIP5 models; 0.3°C to 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C (RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5). Global temperatures averaged over the period 2081–2100 are projected to likely exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900 for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence), are likely to exceed 2°C above 1850-1900 for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence) and are more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5 (medium confidence). Temperature change above 2°C under RCP2.6 is unlikely (medium confidence).
Warming above 4°C by 2081–2100 is unlikely in all RCPs (high confidence) except for RCP8.5, where it is about as likely as not (medium confidence). {12.4.1, Tables 12.2, 12.3, Figures 12.5, 12.8}

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
Det er helt korrekt hvad delphi skriver. Selv ved ækvator er vandet koldt i oceanerne, når man blot kommer et stykke ned.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
delphi har da fuldstændig ret når han snakker om iskolde oceaner. Bortset fra overfladen så er de da meget kolde, og det endda ved ækvator. Prøv selv at undersøge sagen.

Undersøg selv

Jorden er ikke et fysikforsøg for 9.a.
Læs forskningen og bliv oplyst.

All available ocean temperature projections suggest that the global ocean will continue to warm. The largest warming is projected for the upper few hundred metres of the sub-tropical gyres, similar to the observed pattern of ocean temperature changes. Mixing and advection processes will gradually transfer the additional heat to deeper levels.

The rate of increase of OHC is approximately proportional to the global mean change in surface air temperature. Under the low-to-medium (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, half of the energy taken up by the ocean by the end of the 21st century will be by the uppermost 700 m, and 85 % will be by the uppermost 2 000 m. Projected ocean warming varies considerably across forcing scenarios. Globally averaged projected surface warming ranges from about 1 °C for RCP2.6 to more than 3 °C for RCP8.5 during the 21st century, and at a depth of 1 000 m ranges from 0.5 °C for RCP2.6 to 1.5 °C for RCP8.5 [vi].

Så opvarmningen af overfladen i oceanerne vil i middel ligge i området 1 til 3 grader, mens temperaturen i 1000 meters dybde vil stige 0,5 til 1 grad.
Det er i middel. Der vil optræde store forskelle fra havområde til havområde, så f.eks. Østersøen vil opvarmes væsentligt mere end Atlanterhavet.

Observations indicate that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean has risen by ~0.06°C per decade from 1901–2012 and ~0.095°C per decade from 1979–2012 (Hartmann et al., 2013).26. jan. 2018

Peter Villadsen skrev:

All available ocean temperature projections suggest that the global ocean will continue to warm. The largest warming is projected for the upper few hundred metres of the sub-tropical gyres, similar to the observed pattern of ocean temperature changes. Mixing and advection processes will gradually transfer the additional heat to deeper levels.

The rate of increase of OHC is approximately proportional to the global mean change in surface air temperature. Under the low-to-medium (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, half of the energy taken up by the ocean by the end of the 21st century will be by the uppermost 700 m, and 85 % will be by the uppermost 2 000 m. Projected ocean warming varies considerably across forcing scenarios. Globally averaged projected surface warming ranges from about 1 °C for RCP2.6 to more than 3 °C for RCP8.5 during the 21st century, and at a depth of 1 000 m ranges from 0.5 °C for RCP2.6 to 1.5 °C for RCP8.5 [vi].

Så opvarmningen af overfladen i oceanerne vil i middel ligge i området 1 til 3 grader, mens temperaturen i 1000 meters dybde vil stige 0,5 til 1 grad.
Det er i middel. Der vil optræde store forskelle fra havområde til havområde, så f.eks. Østersøen vil opvarmes væsentligt mere end Atlanterhavet.

We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) daily SST data, 1982–2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24 °C decade− 1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51 °C decade− 1 over the Black Sea) and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15 °C over the Black Sea to 21 °C over the Levantine sub-basin). Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6 °C century− 1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85) scenario.