PART 10/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

"Samlet set for UAH, Copernicus og alle andre datasæt: der er siden 1980 en opadgående trend i opvarmningen også uagtet, at 1998 var ekstrem varm og er blevet udnyttet af påståelige personer til at vise, at kloden efterfølgende afkøledes. "

Regardless, even when scientists assume that solar activity is increasing based on proxy data and the satellite record, they can't account for all of the warming observed at the end of the twentieth century. Climate models can only reproduce the warming observed

The evidence shows that although fluctuations in the amount of solar energy reaching our atmosphere do influence our climate, the global warming trend of the past six decades cannot be attributed to changes in the sun.

Niels K Sørensen skrev:

Niels K Sørensen skrev:
Nej, vi kan ikke afgøre om solaktiviteten er voldsomt dalende.
Men der er hjælp at hente i forskningen.
Læs denne artikel og fortæl, hvorfor du ikke anerkender global opvarmning, så kan vi måske komme lidt videre.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/why-the-sun-is-not-responsible-for-recent-climate-change?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=EndHits18

Jeg vil også lige sige: svar ikke med en et par kurver og grafer, men med videnskabelige artikler, undersøgelser, der giver dig medhold i dine antagelser.
Mvh Niels

Frank Lansner, hvor er de videnskabelige artikler, undersøgelser, der viser, at du har ret i, at CO2 ikke er hovedårsagen til den globale opvarmning?
Mvh niels

According to project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, this reduction in temperature is significant, even though it will do little to compensate for human-induced climate change. "We could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little. That might help us to deal with the consequences of climate change." But this will be no more than borrowed time, warns Schmutz, since the next minimum will inevitably be followed by a maximum.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-03-sun-impact-climate-quantified.html#jCp

The abrupt climate change triggered by the freshwater inundation ended more than 2,000 years of warming, said Keigwin, an oceanographer at WHOI and lead author of the study, which appears online today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The Younger Dryas triggered dramatic changes to regional climates. The freshwater from glaciers made its way from the Arctic to the north Atlantic Ocean. There it disrupted a circulation pattern that stretches from Greenland to the Southern Ocean. That pattern, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), transports warm equatorial waters poleward and releases heat to the atmosphere.

That disruption caused substantial cooling in Europe, The Younger Dryas in fact takes its name from a flower (Dryas octopetala) that flourished in the continent's cold conditions at the time.

The Younger Dryas lasted a mere 200 years making it only a short blip in a warming period that has lasted 20,000 years but to scientists like Driscoll, it's an important example of how feedbacks affect the climate system. Overall trends of warming or cooling on Earth are not linear but are punctuated by reversals and accelerations such as this one. Such events help scientists interpret current trends, distinguishing global climate signals from regional signals.

Frank, det jeg sagde var udelukkende, at hvis du så på temp datasæt over 40 år, så ser du ingen pause, for i nullerne fortsatte temp stigning ufortrødent ift de data, der er opsamlet før 1998

" hvis du så på temp datasæt over 40 år, så ser du ingen pause, for i nullerne fortsatte temp stigning ufortrødent ift de data, der er opsamlet før 1998."

Hej Niels K,

du skrev for nyligt:

"Frank Lansner: du vil gerne diskutere isudbredelse?
Jeg mener, at for at diskutere dette, så er starten : hvad er global sea ice extent år for år.."

Er det noget du kan stå inde for?

Eller er det sådan, at når globalt isareal inden længe går i positiv, så trækker du i land?

Frank Lansner skrev:
Hej Niels K

Når "din" fløj skulle forklare pausen, så var det ikke sjældent at oceanernes evne til at "sluge" noget varme og dermed forsinke opvarmningen blev brugt. Et fair argument.
Man accepterer alstå at opvarmning kan forsinkes grundet oceanerne så opvarmningen optræder mere gradvis.


Når "din" fløj skal angribe Solteorien så accepterer man ikke at oceaner kan "sluge" noget varme og dermed forsinke en opvarmning, gøre den mere gradvis, så temperaturer over lidt længere forløb indstiller sig til en ny varmebalance.


Hvorfor tænker du personligt at man er mere indstillet på at acceptere oceanernes (indlysende) evne til at forsinke opvarmning hvis den kommer fra CO2 men ikke hvis den kommer grundet Solaktivitet?

Kjeld Jul skrev:
Ad. temperaturtrends.
Fra 1880 til 2018 steg temperaturen med ca. 1 C.
Men temperaturen stiger ikke lineært, men består også af stilstande og pauser.
Temperaturen steg fra 1911 til 1940 og fra 1976 til 1997.
Temperaturen gik tilbage eller var i pause fra 1896 til 1910,fra 1941 til 1975 og fra 1998 til 2013.
At der har været pauser og stilstande er indiskutabel, årsagen bliver stadig diskuteret af klimaforskerne, her er der konsensus,at en del af temperatur variationerne skyldes El Nino og La Nina.

However, the new findings show that this pause didn't happen after all, the researchers said. Moreover, the study shows that Arctic temperature data is key when calculating climate change. Until recently, many scientists didn't think that the Arctic was large enough to greatly influence average global temperatures, Zhang said.

"The Arctic is remote only in terms of physical distance," he said. "In terms of science, it's close to every one of us. It's a necessary part of the equation and the answer affects us all."

Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.

"alle mulige typer af temperatur data på tværs af tekniker, på tværs af nationaliteter, udstyr, forskere, traditioner, institutter, geografi , oceaner osv, alle data har altså tilfældigvis fejlet på helt samme måde, så alle data skal ændres fra ikke at vise ret meget opvarmning efter 1998 til at vise en del opvarmning efter 1998.

Bare sjovt tilfælde at alt er fejlet, og så sjovt nok lige i samme retning så alle data skal korriges i retning af mere opvarmning efter 1998."

"We find a large cooling bias in...."

Kjeld Jul skrev:
I klimamodellerne har man i mange år brugt aerosoller som reguleringsjoker, og som
forklaring på faldende temperaturer, hvor temperaturen iflg forskernes CO2 forcing skulle være højere.
Nu har flere forskere vist,at aerosoller slet ikke har så stor en kølende virkning,hvilket viser at klimasensitiviteten er mindre end antaget.
Det er blandt andre Max Planck institut og en forskergruppe på 32 omkring Florent Malavelle,som blev bragt i NATURE d. 22.7.2017.

Kjeld Jul skrev:
Niels-
Du udviser en mageløs grad af arrogance-
tager du virkelig ikke et studie af Max Planck og Florent Malavelles 32 mands forskergruppe alvorlig ?

Kjeld Jul skrev:
Niels.
De studier, jeg henviser til her mener jeg har mest seriøsitet, her menes at klimasensiviteten ligger nærmere 2C end 3C.
Der er mere end 40 forskere ved Max Planck og Florent gruppen, som er nået til det resultat.
Og disse forskere er ikke de eneste som mener ,at sensitiviteten er noget mindre end estimeret i AR5.( 3+÷ 1,5C)

Vi har altså muligvis igen i år en situation hvor vi netto får taget ferskvand væk fra oceanerne omkring Grønland

Arctic sea ice extent for June 2018 averaged 10.7 million square kilometers (4.1 million square miles). This was 1.05 million square kilometers (405,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average and 360,000 square kilometers (139,000 square miles) above the record low June extent set in 2016. This was the fourth lowest June average extent in the satellite record.

Extent at the end of June remained below average in the Chukchi Sea, but because of slow retreat through June in the region, extent in the Chukchi is now closer to average than was the case at the end of May. The Barents Sea and East Siberian Sea also have extents well below average at the end of June. Most of the ice in the Sea of Okhotsk has melted. Ice has been retreating in the west side of Hudson Bay where extent is below average. However, this is countered by above average extent in the eastern side of the bay. Notably, a large area of open water has developed in the Laptev Sea, leading to record low extents in that region during the first half of June.