PART 10/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

While it is clear that Arctic sea ice extent has diminished since 1979, it's also important to note that this reduction must be viewed in the context of the overall Holocene. Holocene Arctic sea ice extent reached its Holocene maximum between 1600 and 1850 AD.

So any reductions are from the maximum values of this geologic epoch. The LIA was clearly the coldest phase of the Holocene and modern sea ice conditions are much closer to the LIA than they are to the pre-Neoglaciation period.

Her er en interessant lille artikel om en PhD submission der analyserer HadCrut og finder mange fejl inkluderet afkøling af fortiden. Desværre er jeg af den mening at der stadig er store problemer med de globale temperaturer og hvor akkurate de er.

[url]http://joannenova.com.au/2018/10/first-audit-of-global-temperature-data-finds-freezing-tropical-islands-boiling-towns-boats-on-land/[url]

Der er ikke noget odiøst eller opsigtsvækkende i, at der er mindre fejl i databaser med millionvis af data. Det sker ofte under data migration og...

Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth's surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.

Der er intet urimeligt i en temperaturstigning på 1.2 grad pr. århundrede. Da naturen forsøger at vende tilbage til stenaldrens og bronzealders højere temperaturer.

jeg synes det er fint at din grafik over Arktis is viser at vi ligger under tidligere dekaders gennemsnit. - Hvis nogen skulle være i tvivl.

Men jeg synes det hører med til reel information også at vise at der er luft ned til minimumsrekorden 2012

Havisens areal var 2 millioner km² mindre end gennemsnittet for perioden 1981-2000, men stadig 1.2 millioner km² større end minimums-rekorden sat i 2012. Dette gør det årlige minimum til det 6. laveste siden starten af satellit-målingerne i 1979...

Polar jet circulation changes bring Sahara dust to Arctic, increasing temperatures, melting ice

Summary points

A new atmospheric mechanism by which dust travels from the Sahara Desert across the eastern side of the North Atlantic Ocean towards the Arctic has been discovered
The dust emission was generated by a Saharan cyclone that was triggered by the intrusion of a trough emanating from the polar jet
The poleward transport of warm dust was caused by a meandering polar jet stream
Approximately half of the warming in the Arctic is being attributed to increased moisture and heat fluxes transported to the region from lower latitudes

Polar jet circulation changes bring Sahara dust to Arctic, increasing temperatures, melting ice

Scientists are increasingly confident of the links between global warming and hurricanes.

In a warming world, they say, hurricanes will be stronger, for a simple reason: Warmer water provides more energy that feeds them.

Hurricanes and other extreme storms will also be wetter, for a simple reason: Warmer air holds more moisture.

And, storm surges from hurricanes will be worse, for a simple reason that has nothing to do with the storms themselves: Sea levels are rising.

Researchers cannot say, however, that global warming is to blame for the specifics of the latest storm, Hurricane Michael, which grew to Category 4 with sustained winds of 155 miles an hour, as it hit the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Such attribution may come later, when scientists compare the real-world storm to a fantasy-world computer simulation in which humans did not pump billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

VI har været lidt inde på dette at koldere luft (igen-igen) er forskubbet ned over Nordamerika, hvilket efterlader et varmere Arktis hvor havisen vokser langsommere end normalt alt imens Nordamerika har det koldere end normalt.

Jeg synes det er meget sundt en gang imellem lige at se på situationen som globe idet man godt kan glemme hvor lille Arktis egentligt er i forhold til f.eks Nordamerika.

Jesper-Midtfyn skrev:
Mens vækstmulighederne for havisen ikke er de mest optimale i Arktis med et varmere Arktis end normalt i et stort område i dag

Forskere er enige om, at varmere oceaner giver mere brændstof til kraftigere orkaner.

I've updated a plot of Florida major hurricane strikes since 1900 with Hurricane Michael, and the result is that there is still no trend in either intensity or frequency of strikes over the last 118 years:

Whenever anybody wheels out their list of extreme weather events for this year, remind them about US tornadoes.

Not only is this year proving to be one of the quietist in recent years, the number of strong tornadoes is currently on track to be the lowest on record.

Her er en interessant lille artikel om en PhD submission der analyserer HadCrut og finder mange fejl inkluderet afkøling af fortiden. Desværre er jeg af den mening at der stadig er store problemer med de globale temperaturer og hvor akkurate de er.

The image below overlays Mears' old graph on his new one. It is clear what he did – he eliminated the blue error interval, and started using the high side of the interval as his temperature.

Frank Lansner skrev:
Prognose for globale temperaturer i den kommende uge viser en varmepeak af enorm styrke.
Hvis prognose holder stik skulle vi komme op over +1 grad globalt for denne NECP/GFS prognose.

For this year, we calculated a total SMB of 517bn tonnes, which is almost 150bn tonnes above the average for 1981-2010, ranking just behind the 2016-17 season as sixth highest on record.

We must wait for data from the GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellite mission before we know how the total mass budget has fared this year – which includes calving and melting at the base of the ice sheet. However, it is likely that the relatively high end of season SMB will mean a zero or close-to-zero total mass budget this year, as last year.

pifpafpuf skrev:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/10/uah-arctic-temperature-profile/
En artikel om UAH temperaturer i Arktis af Kip Hansen.
Det interessante er at han ikke kan få UAH og DMI's data til at korrelere efter 2005.
Tiltrækker en del interessante - og komplekse - kommentarer.

We will know that global warming is over once that bounding line is broken.

Ser ud til at en meget væsentlig del af de registrerede temperaturstigninger kan henføres til vindkraft. Flere studier har vist, at der lokalt måles temperaturstigninger på 0,5 til 0,7 grd. C og på verdensplan ca. 0,2 grd. C

Konkrete og uafhængige målinger viser noget andet, og som anført i mit forrige indlæg, kan selv overslagsregning indikere ret bastante påvirkninger helt i tråd med samme måleresultater

Tingene kan skifte hurtigt begge veje