PART 9/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

"The growth is largely attributable to just two huge glaciers: Pine Island and Thwaites. "

" Pine Island had "calved," or broken off a piece of ice about 103 square miles in area. (For comparison, Manhattan is 22.83 square miles in size.) The rectangular piece of ice then appears to have lost some of its shape immediately as smaller pieces splintered off.

"It's the fifth large calving event since 2000," Lhermitte said. "This one and 2015, they were much further inland than the previous ones. So there has been a retreat of the calving front, specifically between 2011 and 2015.""

"The ice sheets of Antarctica hold enough water to raise global sea
level by 58m ".

"ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year "

"Gravimetric estimates of mass change are strongly influenced by the
method used to correct for GIA. In this study, six different GIA
models were used"

" the mean and standard deviation of the continent-wide GIA models (54 ±18 Gt/yr) .. "

"Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of
ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year"

".. Models predict the greatest rates of solid-Earth uplift (5–7 mm/yr on average) in areas where GIA is a substantial component of the regional mass change"

Vil blot gøre opmærksom på at det vist ikke er mere end et halvt år siden (?) at der kom en rapport med præcist modsatte budskab, nemlig at isen netto akkumulerer på Antarktis...

A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008...

Frank Lansner skrev:
Hej Niels , du skriver : "Når Frank Lansner påstår, at havene omkring Antarktis er kolde i disse år, så strider det imod forskningsresultater, der offentliggøres omkring Antarktis ismassers opførsel."

Eller måske omvendt :

Det er de resultater der - nogle gange (!) - offentliggøres omkring Antarktis ismassers opførsel der strider mod de mest anerkendte kilder til temperatur data, idet såvel landdata, Havoverflade data som satelllit data ikke viser nogen opvarmning på eller omkring Antarktis i senere dekader.

Som minimum burde disse udgivelser der tordner i retning at accelererende afsmeltninger af is på Antarktis forklare hvordan de selv synes det hænger sammen med udebllivende opvarmning down there. Hvis de var videnskabelige ville de undre sig, skrive om dette, komme med deres bud. Men de vælger at ignorere dette lille problem, og det er ikke tillidsvækkende.

"This is the most robust study of the ice mass balance of Antarctica to date," said assessment team co-lead Erik Ivins at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). "It covers a longer period than our 2012 IMBIE study, has a larger pool of participants, and incorporates refinements in our observing capability and an improved ability to assess uncertainties."

"du mangler at godtgøre at temperaturen i luft og ocean omkring de pågældende områder i vest Antarktis igennem de sidste årtier har været konstant eller faldende. Det er din påstand. Det være sig SST, målinger på land og sattelitmålinger."
"Jeg tænker det er umuligt for Frank Lansner at eftervise sin påstand."

New research published today in the journal Science shows how shallow shelf seas of West Antarctica have warmed over the last 50 years
...
For example, the temperatures of the warmest waters near the sea bed in the Bellingshausen sea have warmed from about 0.8C in the 1970s to about 1.2C in the 2010s. "This might not sound like much", says the lead author of the study Sunke Schmidtko from GEOMAR in Germany, "but it is a large amount of extra heat available to melt the ice".

With a flow speed of four kilometres per year, Western Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier is one of the fastest-flowing ice streams in the Southern Hemisphere. Together with its neighbouring glaciers, every year the up to 50-kilometre-wide ice stream transports more than 300 gigatonnes of ice from the hinterland to the Amundsen Sea, and is responsible for between five and ten percent of the global sea-level rise. Scientists have already identified the cause of this rapid loss of ice: since the 1940s, warm water masses, which branch off from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, have found their way beneath the floating part of the glacier, melting what is referred to as its ice shelf from below. As a result, the ice tongue, which is currently ca. 55 kilometres long, has been losing roughly 5.3 metres of thickness per year for the past quarter-century.

Mens der i år akkumuleres is i Grønland, så er massetabet ved Antarktis tre doblet over de sidste 5 år
Her en uddybende artikel, der grundigt og seriøst beskriver problemstillingen

Is Antarctica melting or is it gaining ice? A recent paper claims Antarctica's net ice loss has dramatically increased in recent years, but forthcoming research will challenge that claim.
NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally first challenged the "consensus" on Antarctica in 2015 when he published a paper showing ice sheet growth in eastern Antarctica outweighed the losses in the western ice sheet.
Zwally will again challenge the prevailing narrative of how global warming is affecting the South Pole. Zwally said his new study will show, once again, the eastern Antarctic ice sheet is gaining enough ice to offset losses in the west.

Kosmos skrev:

Mens der i år akkumuleres is i Grønland, så er massetabet ved Antarktis tre doblet over de sidste 5 år
Her en uddybende artikel, der grundigt og seriøst beskriver problemstillingen

- og her én, der siger det modsatte!:

Is Antarctica melting or is it gaining ice? A recent paper claims Antarctica's net ice loss has dramatically increased in recent years, but forthcoming research will challenge that claim.
NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally first challenged the "consensus" on Antarctica in 2015 when he published a paper showing ice sheet growth in eastern Antarctica outweighed the losses in the western ice sheet.
Zwally will again challenge the prevailing narrative of how global warming is affecting the South Pole. Zwally said his new study will show, once again, the eastern Antarctic ice sheet is gaining enough ice to offset losses in the west.

(min kursivering)

Kosmos: du forstår desværre ikke hvad det er, den nye undersøgelse viser.
Prøv at læse de artikler, der er lagt ud.
Intet handler om øget masse til Antarktis...

Klimaforandringerne har fart på. Sidste år smeltede der 219 milliarder tons is fra Antarktis. Det er en tredobling på fem år...

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
Hvis antarktis mister ismasse som oplyst, hvorfor stige havstigningstakten så ikke? Den ligger da forbavsende stabilt.

The 2,000-year commitment understates the full sea level rise commitment, due to the long response time of the polar ice sheets. Paleo sea level records (Figure 12.2a) suggest that 1°C of warming may already represent a long-term commitment to more than 6 meters (20 feet) of GMSL rise. , , A 10,000-year modeling study suggests that 2°C warming represents a 10,000-year commitment to about 25 meters (80 feet) of GMSL rise, driven primarily by a loss of about one-third of the Antarctic ice sheet and three-fifths of the Greenland ice sheet, while 21st century emissions consistent with a higher scenario (RCP8.5) represent a 10,000-year commitment to about 38 meters (125 feet) of GMSL rise, including a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet over about 6,000 years.

Hastigheden på havvandstigningerne vil ligge mellem 3 og 44 mm/år

Kosmos skrev:

Hastigheden på havvandstigningerne vil ligge mellem 3 og 44 mm/år

- hvilket man vel umiddelbart tør betegne som noget af en helgardering?

Kjeld Jul skrev:
Mette Guldagger i Politiken:
Når klimaforkæmperne kun ser verdens undergang, gør de mere skade end gavn.

Jeg kan kun give Mette ret.

En artikel vurderer eksempelvis, at der har været en temperaturstigning på 2.4±1.2 °C mellem 1958 og 2010 i det centrale vestlige Antarktis

Som Niels også påpeger, har der været et positivt signal i SST i Amundsen- og Bellinghausenhavet siden 1970erne

Kosmos skrev:

En artikel vurderer eksempelvis, at der har været en temperaturstigning på 2.4±1.2 °C mellem 1958 og 2010 i det centrale vestlige Antarktis

- det må i påkommende fald dreje sig om et særdeles lokalt (eller overstået?) fænomen...her er temperaturudviklingen siden 2000 for kontinentet som helhed:

Som Niels også påpeger, har der været et positivt signal i SST i Amundsen- og Bellinghausenhavet siden 1970erne

- Argodata viser ingen langtids-trend:



Så skal der findes en forklaring på øget afsmeltning siden 2015, må pilen nok pege i retning af ENSO, som tidligere påpeget af Frank L.