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John Christy: Klimamodeller overvurderer effekten af drivhusgasser


J.Christy: "...climate models greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases..."10-12-2007 22:19
HikerJens
★☆☆☆☆
(73)
Press release 10dec 2007

Ny kritik af klimamodeller og af CO2 som forklaring på opvarmning.
Udgivet i: December 2007 issue of the International Journal of Climatology of the Royal Meteorological Society

"Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia report that observed patterns of temperature changes ('fingerprints') over the last thirty years are not in accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar variability."

Co-author John Christy said: "Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater. We have good reason, therefore, to believe that current climate models greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases. Satellite observations suggest that GH models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon dioxide."

Mere omtale http://science-sepp.blogspot.com/

Original rapport : http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/117857349/ABSTRACT
(kræver abb., hvis nogen finder den fulde rapport hører jeg gerne om det )

:-)
11-12-2007 11:03
kulden-varmenProfilbillede★★★★★
(2261)
Det er rigtigt at hvis drivhus effekten øges af mere CO2 så vil der komme mere vanddamp og denne vil reducere effekten af mere CO2. Dette vil også forklare hvorfor CO2 havde støre effekt under Istiden hvor luften var tør.
11-12-2007 19:58
hemort
☆☆☆☆☆
(1)
Den fulde rapport kan læses her:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DOUGLASPAPER.pdf
14-12-2007 22:13
Michael
★★☆☆☆
(196)
Det bliver interessant at se hvad der kommer ud af den forskning. Lad der ikke være tvivl herom.

Når det er sagt, alene det at der linkes til Singer's web site får minderne frem om hans tvivlsomme omgang med data for at fremme egne formål, etemperaturmålinger fra sattelitter, Singers indædte forsvar for Tobaksindustrien og søgte påstande om voksende antal og omfanget af gletschere...

Lader vi Singer hvile så har jeg forstået at den lidt mere seriøse Professor Christy længe en af skeptikerne omkring det om kloden overhovedet blev opvarmet(!). Roy Spencer og Christy mente tidligere at den nedre troposfære havde haft faldende temperaturer de foregående tretten år (1) I en stadig varmere verden skulle det ikke være muligt. I 2005 viste tre uafhængige undersøgelser, at data'ene af Christy var blevet mistolket. Christy vedgik at hans resultater var ukorrekte, og erkendte at nu at atmosfæren var varmet op (2005). En af de tre på Christys hold, udtalte (3): " er der ikke længere data, der modsiger forudsigelserne i modellerne for global opvarmning"

1) Christy og Spencer "precision and radiosonde validation of satellite gridpoint temperature anomalies.
(2) Science Vol 309, sept. 2005
(3) New Scientist, Sceptics forced into Climate climb-down aug. 2005
Redigeret d. 14-12-2007 22:14
15-12-2007 12:38
HikerJens
★☆☆☆☆
(73)
Tak til hemort for link :-)

@Michael: Bemærk at den nye rapport om modeller er fra oktober 2007 !!

citat: "The last 25 years constitute a period of more complete and accurate observations and more realistic modelling efforts. Yet the models are seen to disagree with the observations. We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution."

Nu anser jeg personligt Christy for en sober og seriøs forsker, bla. efter at have set ham i flere udsendelser bla. på DR, men det er jo så en vurderingssag.
Vel nok næppe en tilfældighed at han var Lead Author på IPCC rapporter i 2001 og Contributing 2007.

Og så har han jo gang i flere ting, bla. også et studie af temperatur udviklingen i Californien 1910-2006 . Konklusionen på denne :

"indicate that changes since 1910 are more consistent with the impacts of land-use changes than the effects currently expected from the enhanced greenhouse theory"

Han kommenterer også på det at arbejde under IPCC .

Rapporten:
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy/ChristyJR_07EC_subEAQ_written.pdf
Redigeret d. 15-12-2007 13:59
02-04-2009 02:05
HikerJens
★☆☆☆☆
(73)
Kan klima sensiviteten være så lav som 0.3 ?

Lindzen on negative climate feedback:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/30/lindzen-on-negative-climate-feedback/


"...
The Bottom Line

The earth's climate (in contrast to the climate in current climate GCMs) is dominated by a strong net negative feedback. Climate sensitivity is on the order of 0.3°C, and such warming as may arise from increasing greenhouse gases will be indistinguishable from the fluctuations in climate that occur naturally from processes internal to the climate system itself.
"
02-04-2009 07:37
kulden-varmenProfilbillede★★★★★
(2261)
HikerJens skrev:
Kan klima sensiviteten være så lav som 0.3 ?


Det er usikkerheden. IPCC har besluttet at finde en opvarmning, men der er en kendt og målt svag afkølende effekt af CO2. Den kan godt overgå den opvarmende effekt, som det aldrig er lykkes at påvise.
23-12-2009 00:23
HikerJens
★☆☆☆☆
(73)
Douglass og Christy har skrevet et indlæg på American Thinker der handler om den behandling denne rapport fik i 2007. CRU mails har åbenbart kunnet kaste lys over det .

A Climatology Conspiracy?
By David H. Douglass and John R. Christy

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/12/a_climatology_conspiracy.html
03-12-2017 00:02
Kosmos
★★★★★
(4450)
Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia report that observed patterns of temperature changes ('fingerprints') over the last thirty years are not in accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar variability

- ganske interessant artikel vedr. 'settled science' med omtale af 'klima(model)konference' i American Physical Society:

The mantra of "settled science" is belied by the inherent complexity of climate change as a scientific problem, the plethora of agents and processes that influence the global climate, and disagreements among scientists. Manufacture and enforcement of a "consensus" on the topic of human-caused climate change acts to the detriment of the scientific process, our understanding of climate change, and the policy responses. Indeed, it becomes a fundamentally anti-scientific process when debate, disagreement, and uncertainty are suppressed...


Bemærk mange interessante betragtninger i kommentarsporet!
Redigeret d. 03-12-2017 00:04
03-12-2017 19:29
Niels K Sørensen
★★☆☆☆
(166)
Meget interessant undersøgelse, der forklarer en del om "klimadebat.dk".

Despite overwhelming scientific agreement on the question of human-caused global warming, a major gap exists between this consensus and the public's understanding of the issue. Writing in BioScience, Jeffrey A. Harvey, of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology, and his colleagues examine the causes of the consensus gap, focusing on climate-denier Internet blogs and the ways in which they use topics such as Arctic sea ice extent and polar bear well-being to foment misapprehensions about climate change among the public.

Harvey and his colleagues performed an analysis of 45 climate-denier blogs, noting that 80% relied primarily on a single denier blog for their evidence, which itself had a single author who "has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on polar bears." This paucity of expertise and evidence is common among such blogs, say the authors, as are personal attacks against researchers and attempts to misstate the extent of scientific uncertainty about crucial issues. Such narrowly framed attacks are designed to generate "keystone dominoes," say the authors, which deniers can then use as proxies for climate science as a whole. "By appearing to knock over the keystone domino, audiences targeted by the communication may assume all other dominoes are toppled in a form of 'dismissal by association.'"


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171130090117.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fearth_climate%2Fglobal_warming+%28Global+Warming+News+--+ScienceDaily%29
03-12-2017 20:12
Søren R NielsenProfilbillede★★★☆☆
(726)
Og som follow-up til Niels K's link om Jeffrey Harvey et al. undersøgelsen, der mildest talt er er en udokumenteret gang propaganda.

Her lidt facts om "de 45 denier-blogs"-artiklen, hvor man tydeligt ser hvor amatøragtig og manipulerende den er:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/29/more-slime-from-the-lewandowsky-mann-machine-calling-for-trench-warfare/

Her et uddrag, der bla. stiller spørgsmålstegn ved troværdigheden af denne Harvey-"undersøgelse":

"One thing about the paper, they claim they surveyed "45 climate-denier blogs", yet offer no supporting data or methodology I can find. There's no Supplemental Information (SI), and nothing in the paper that shows any data whatsoever.
This relegates the paper to being an opinion piece (or rather a hit piece given the open vendetta against climate skeptics that has been displayed by Lewandowsky and Mann).
Plus, for a science journal to use the word "denier" is quite troubling. It is mind-blowing to me that a journal would publish "denier" used as a pejorative label with a broad brush. They expose themselves to legal issues of defamation in doing so."

Harvey, hvem end han er, har begået en yderst svag artikel, som ikke er understøttet af andet end hans overbevisning.
-Propaganda af "fineste" kvalitet.
03-12-2017 20:16
crankProfilbillede★★★★☆
(1552)
.
wattsupwiththat.com - igen, igen.

Det bekræfter jo fint Niels' indlæg!



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