Naturen røber at verden varmer op

rick_uk skrev:
Her kan man komme med links til historier om naturen. Røber den en varmende eller afkølende klode?

Vinter-OL er ramt af klimaændringer. Barkbiller har overlevet de senere års mildere vintre og dræbt fyrretræerne.

Før verden blev varmere, blev billen holdt i ave af de kolde canadiske vintre. Når temperaturen bevæger sig under minus 20-30 grader, dør langt de fleste af billens larver, men er det varmere, kan de overleve beskyttet under træernes bark.

»Klimaændringerne er allerede startet. I England har man kunnet konstatere at mange sommerfugle har flyttet sig. Deres nordgrænse bevæger sig opad,« fortæller Flemming Skov.

Et andet tydeligt hjemligt tegn på det ændrede klima er, konstaterer Flemming Skov, at fuglenes træktidspunkter har ændret sig. De trækker senere mod syd og kommer tidligere tilbage.

Jeg finder de biologiske indiktorer meget vigtige, idet de definerer vores klima. I nutiden og i fremtiden. De er også bedre at benytte end direkte målinger. Der findes mangle eksempler på.

Marine scientists are reporting that a colony of sea lions, previously unique to the Galapagos Islands, has unexpectedly decamped 900 miles south-east to an island just off the coast of Peru in what may be another symptom of global warming.

"This is due to their adaptation to climate change. The conditions of the sea around Piura are now similar to the Galapagos."

The researchers have found that the waters around Peru's Foca Island, where the sea lions have settled, have risen in temperature over the past 10 years from an average of 17C to 23C. That is roughly the same as the surface waters around the Galapagos

The thawing and decay of telltale, reddish mounds along the eastern shore of James Bay have led a team of Quebec researchers to conclude that the region's permafrost line has moved rapidly northward — about 130 km in just 50 years — as part of a broader transformation of Canada's sub-Arctic frontier in the age of climate change.

...the researchers found that the average annual temperature in the area had increased by 2 C over the past 20 years.

rick_uk skrev:
LEADER-POST: Permafrost rapidly deteriorating in northern Quebec: Study (17/2-10)

The new study shows summer temperatures in the Arctic cooled in step with the reduced solar energy for almost 2,000 years.

Recent warming in the Arctic has interrupted, and reversed, a long-term cooling cycle triggered by wobbles in Earth's orbit, according to new research.

The Arctic should still be cooling, an international team reports, but instead is warmer than it's been in at least 2,000 years, likely because of human interference.

"The cooling coincided with the slow and well-known cycle in Earth's orbit around the sun, and it should have continued through the 20th century."

"The amount of energy we're getting from the sun in the 20th century continued to go down, but the temperature went up higher than anything we've seen in the last 2,000 years."

The reconstruction shows the last half of the 20th century was the warmest in 2,000 years -- with four of the five warmest decades occurring between 1950 and 2000.

Research by the U.S. Geological Survey is the first to document that every ice front in the southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula has been retreating overall from 1947 to 2009, with the most dramatic changes occurring since 1990. The USGS previously documented that the majority of ice fronts on the entire Peninsula have also retreated during the late 20th century and into the early 21st century.

The Peninsula is one of Antarctica's most rapidly changing areas because it is farthest away from the South Pole, and its ice shelf loss may be a forecast of changes in other parts of Antarctica and the world if warming continues.

"The loss of ice shelves is evidence of the effects of global warming. We need to be alert and continually understand and observe how our climate system is changing."

Mens debatten mellem klimaskeptikere og videnskabsmænd i disse dage gløder i England, nøjes britiske vinbønder med at glæde sig over større høst og bedre vin end nogensinde.....

Vancouverites welcomed the world to the 2010 Winter Olympics with blossoming cherry trees, flowering crocuses and a lack of snow.

We haven't seen any snow on Cypress since mid-January and, except for one or two days, it's been too warm even for artificial snow-making.

Although Vancouver's warmest winter on record can't be pinned entirely on global warming (this is an El Nino year), it fits with the long-term pattern. The snow season in Western Canada has declined by about four weeks over the past 50 years.....

Using satellite data, scientists estimate that B.C.'s glaciers are losing 22 cubic kilometres of ice a year.

Forskere ved Statens Naturhistoriske Museum ved Københavns Universitet har sammen med forskere fra Grønlands Naturinstitut og DTU Aqua har netop offentliggjort en ny optegnelse over samtlige 269 fiskearter i grønlandske farvande.


»Hele 57 arter er kommet til siden den seneste oversigt fra 1992, og det store spørgsmål er nu om nogle af de mange nye arter ved Grønland kan tilskrives klimaændringer dvs. øgede havtemperaturer. Vi mener at mindst fem af de nye arter kan forklares med øgede temperaturer ved Grønland, « siger Peter Rask Møller, lektor ved Statens Naturhistoriske Museum og leder af projektet. »I disse klimatider, hvor der især er fokus på de øgende temperaturer i Arktis er det særdeles vigtigt med basale undersøgelser af forekomsten af dyr og planter. De er simpelthen forudsætningen for at forstå eventuelle fremtidige ændringer«

Temperaturerne har de seneste 10 år været væsentlig højere end i 1920-40erne og det er derfor nærliggende at antage, at i hvert fald nogle af de mange nye fiskearter er kommet til som følge af øgede havtemperaturer.

Australian scientists say they have uncovered a "causal link" between the early emergence of a common butterfly and human-induced global warming.

"It's now coming out about 10 days earlier than it was 60 years ago...When you look at the air temperatures over that time, it's getting warmer" says Dr Michael Kearney of the University of Melbourne.

Kearney says that while previous studies have found a correlation between global warming and animals coming out earlier in spring, this study is the first to provide evidence of a causal link between this phenomenon and human-induced global warming.

Climate change appears to be producing winners and losers among the birds, land and sea animals, and fish that breed or live year-round in the Arctic, says a new study "The Arctic Species Trend Index," (released March 17) that looked at their abundance over a 34-year period.

Among the biggest winners are ducks, geese and swans, bowhead whales, white-tailed eagles ,and the Atlantic puffin, whose population numbers are up.

The biggest losers include Greenland's Atlantic cod, lemmings, the brown bear, and polar bears in the Western Hudson Bay.

The variations may be due to responses to climatic changes, suggests the study, which mean species with more southerly distributions move north, "while the northernmost typical High Arctic species have nowhere to move to."

The Lake Tahoe-area bears are up early, and they're ravenous.

"They feel the warmth and come out of their dens, but there's no natural food for them yet...The grasses, herbs and roots they like are still covered with snow, and there will be more storms"

"For a good 10 years, they've been getting up a little earlier each year. We used to have more snow and more cold, so it used to be the end of March or later, but then it was the middle of March and now it starts about the first," said Ann Bryant, executive director of the BEAR League.

En tiendedel af kvæget i Mongoliet er døde af sult i løbet af vinteren.

Efter den værste vinter i årtier anslås en tiendedel af kvæget i Mongoliet - 4,5 mio. dyr - at være døde af sult siden december. Det skriver ATL, som citerer nyhedsbureauet Reuters.

Store mængder sne og temperaturer ned til 40 graders frost har i vinter gjort det meget vanskeligt for kvægnomaderne at finde græsning til deres dyr. Problemet er blevet forværret af det faktum, at sidste sommer var ekstraordinært tør.

New research by a team of ecologists and hydrologists shows that water temperatures are increasing in many streams and rivers throughout the United States. The research, published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, documents that 20 major U.S. streams and rivers -- including such prominent rivers as the Colorado, Potomac, Delaware, and Hudson -- have shown statistically significant long-term warming.

Long-term increases in stream water temperatures were typically correlated with increases in air temperatures, and rates of warming were most rapid in urbanized areas.

"Warming waters can impact the basic ecological processes taking place in our nation's rivers and streams...Long-term temperature increases can impact aquatic biodiversity, biological productivity, and the cycling of contaminants through the ecosystem."

"It's both surprising and remarkable that so many diverse river systems in North America behaved in concert with respect to warming"

"We are seeing the largest increases in the most highly urbanized areas which lead us to believe that the one-two punch of development and global warming could have a tremendous impact on stream and river ecosystem health"

Tendensen er tydelig- de danske bøgetræer springer tidligere og tidligere ud.

Erfaringen siger os, at det nu er tiden, hvor vi igen skal til at holde øje med de danske bøgetræer - for de første vil sikkert snart springe ud.

Tidligere mente man, at det primært var dagslængden, og derefter temperaturen, der afgjorde hvornår bøgetræerne sprang ud. Man argumenterede for, at bøgetræerne genetisk skulle være programmeret til at finde en bestemt dato om foråret (ved hjælp af lyset) - for derefter at indlede løvspringet og folde deres blade ud. Denne forklaring er vi ikke helt sikre på holder stik.

De sidste 50 år er bøgen nemlig sprunget ud tidligere og tidligere. Det lader til at bøgetræerne også påvirkes af det aktuelle vejr - især temperaturen - måske også nedbørsmængderne.

De sidste 50 år er bøgen nemlig sprunget ud tidligere og tidligere. Det lader til at bøgetræerne også påvirkes af det aktuelle vejr - især temperaturen...

British plants are coming into flower earlier as temperatures rise, according to a study published today which is based on nature records dating back 250 years.

The change has been greatest in the past 25 years, with flowers coming out between two and 12 days earlier in the past quarter century than in any previous 25-year period.

Records stretching back to 1753 were used to create a 250-year index of the first flowering dates of the 405 species to show the impact of climate change.

The index showed a close link with the mean Central England Temperature – a record of average temperatures across the middle of England dating back to 1659 – for February to April, with each 1C rise correlating to first flowering dates occurring five days earlier.

"We used the plant data set because it's the best set. You could expand it across all species and all countries to come up with a global index."

British plants are coming into flower earlier as temperatures rise, according to a study published today which is based on nature records dating back 250 years.

....der er fremavlet planter, der blomstre tidligere?

Spring trends

Over the past 30 years phenology has provided biologists with clear evidence that spring is arriving earlier.

Trees have been coming into leaf sooner. Migrant birds are arriving earlier with swallows now a week ahead of their dates in 1970. Frogspawn is being spotted before Christmas in the south-west, while comma and holly blue butterflies have been sighted as early as March.


The variation of timing between species remains disturbingly evident, with all taxa changing at very different rates relative to 2001; plants about 10 days earlier, insects 2 weeks earlier and bird activity (migration and breeding) about a week earlier.

Bursting into bud

Records from Jean Combes in Surrey are positive proof that the leafing of trees has advanced over the 1980s and '90s. Horse chestnut shows the greatest advance of 12 days, oak 10 days and ash six.

Butterflies like it hot

The Butterfly Monitoring Scheme has shown that the emergence of butterflies in early summer varies with temperature. The ringlet is an excellent example. Its appearance has become progressively earlier in recent years, for every 1°C rise it can be seen a week earlier.

Early birds

Migratory birds are also responding to climate change. Records from coastal bird observatories from 1960-96 show that two woodland species - chiffchaff and blackcap - appear to be arriving in Britain earlier. Their response to temperature rise is about two to three days per 1°C. If you are interested in birds, take a look at the British Trust for Ornithology's Birdtrack website to view the pattern of arrival of migrants in spring.

Er der nogle bestemt eksemplar du tænke på?

Experts say that a majority of Austria's glaciers in the Alps are melting due to warm weather.

The Austrian Alpine Association says 85 of the 93 glaciers it monitored between the fall of 2008 and the fall of 2009 had receded, while seven stayed the same and one grew.

The Innsbruck-based group says in its annual report released Friday that the Niederjochferner glacier in the Oetztal Alps melted the most and shrank by 46 meters (151 feet).

It says the average loss among all glaciers was 14.4 meters (47 feet), and 10 glaciers melted more than 30 meters (98 feet).

The association's 2007-2008 report says 83 glaciers had receded during that year out of 94 monitored, seven stayed largely unchanged and four showed slight growth.

Warmer temperatures have reduced the number of named glaciers in the northwestern Montana park to 25, said Dan Fagre, an ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. He warned the rest of the glaciers may be gone by the end of the decade.

The current glaciers started to recede long before the invention of the SUV.
Tree-ring based climate records and historic photographs indicate the initiation of frontal recession and ice mass thinning between A.D. 1860 and 1880.
"Dramatic recession" occurred between 1917 and 1941. This was before the invention of the Hummer and the Soccer Mom. Hansen wasn't even born yet.

Montana is the location of the latest CAGW pilgrimage, after Copenhagen got snowed out. Where next?

Writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Nick Barrand and Martin Sharp tell us about the evolution of glaciers in the Yukon Territory of Canada over the past 50 years.

The main result is robust. In the late 1950s the extent of glacier ice in the Yukon was 11,622 km2 and in the late 2000s it was 9,081 km2. The rate of shrinkage was therefore —0.44% per year, give or take about 0.03%/yr. Four glaciers grew, 10 remained the same size, and the other 1,388 shrank. Of the shrinking ones, about a dozen disappeared.

Are there any exceptions to what looks like a global rule that glaciers are losing mass? Not in the regions with adequate measurements, for sure.

The number of regions like these three [Alaska, Svalbard, Yukon] is increasing gradually, and the closer we get to complete coverage the less likely does it become that our global estimates are seriously wrong. One region without adequate measurements is the Karakoram in Kashmir, where limited information suggests that some of the glaciers are not only advancing but thickening. But even if there is a surprise in store in the Karakoram, we need more than one such surprising region to make the global rule look debatable.