Klimamodellernes "missing link"
| Klimamodellernes "missing link"14-04-2012 14:57 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Hvis nogen skulle være i tvivl om hvilke indikationer der findes på en forbindelse mellem jordens klima og solens aktivitet, så er der et par velciterede og peer-reviewede studier herunder. Denne effekt er der IKKE taget højde for i IPCCs modeller! Det kan godt være at det ikke er den dominerende faktor, men størrelsesordenen af denne effekt mangler endnu at blive bestemt. Dette er dog ikke ensbetydende med at den bare kan ignoreres, som IPCC forsøger på nuværende tidspunkt, fordi denne effekt vil unægtelig reducere den betydning CO2 har på klimaet. |
| 14-04-2012 14:58 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Miyahara et al., 2008. Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 272, 290-295: "The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated". Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:38 |
| 14-04-2012 14:58 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Yamaguchi et al, 2010. Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, 20697-20702: "We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:39 |
| 14-04-2012 14:59 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Carslaw et al., 2002. Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate. Science 298, 1732-1736: "..the observation has raised the intriguing possibility that a cosmic ray–cloud interaction may help explain how a relatively small change in solar output can produce much larger changes in Earth's climate." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:41 |
| 14-04-2012 14:59 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
van Geel et al, 1999. The role of solar forcing upon climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 18, 331-338: "We argue that variations in solar activity may have played a significant role in forcing these climate changes". Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:42 |
| 14-04-2012 14:59 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Rind, 2002. The Sun's Role in Climate Variations. Science 296, 673-677: "There is no doubt that there are some clear signatures of solar forcing in the system, including some of the orbital variations and planetary wave–mean flow interactions and possibly total irradiance variations". Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:42 |
| 14-04-2012 15:00 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Solanki et al., 2004. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature 431, 1085-1087: "We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:42 |
| 14-04-2012 15:00 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Lockwood et al., 2010. Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change. Environmental Research Letters 5, 9 pp: "Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:43 |
| 14-04-2012 15:01 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Jager&Usoskin, 2006. On possible drivers of Sun-induced climate changes. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68, 2053-2060: "..we can conclude that in so far as the Sun–climate connection is concerned tropospheric temperatures are more likely affected by variations in the UV radiation flux rather than by those in the CR flux." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:42 |
| 14-04-2012 15:01 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Erlykin et al., 2010. Correlations of clouds, cosmic rays and solar irradiation over the Earth. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72, 151-156: "In this work we examine the evidence critically from several standpoints and conclude that the evidence for a negative correlation of low and a positive correlation for middle cloud cover with solar irradiance (as measured by UV) over a significant fraction of the Earth (20–30%) is good." Redigeret af branner d. 08-08-2012 18:42 |
| 29-05-2012 08:52 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
I dette foredrag forklarer Nir Shaviv lige præcis den pointe jeg prøvede at demonstrere med denne tråd, nemlig at IPCC's estimater for sensitiviteten for CO2 må og skal reduceres, da de ikke tager højde for den virkelige effekt fra solen, som man med sikkerhed kan se i mange forskellige datasæt: http://climateconferences.heartland.org/nir-shaviv-iccc7/ |
| 29-05-2012 18:18 | |
| kfl★★★★★ (2167) |
kristofferszilas skrev: Hej Kristoffers Du har være meget flittig med at fremskaffe links. Tak for det. Uden at være Sol-ekspert kan jeg sige, at det er almindeligt accepteret, at Solen er drivkraften mht. klimaændringerne frem til industrialiseringen. Derefter er det mere tvivlsom, hvor stor betydning den har. Tamino har som bendt søgt at estimere effekten fra Sol på den globale temperatur efter industrialiseringen, men den har kun en marginal påvirkningen. Så virkningen fra Solen er der, men kun marginalt. KFL Vær skeptisk over for skeptikerne.... Det er der grund til. |
| 29-05-2012 20:44 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
"Nominally, we can account for 40% of the 20th century global warming by the sun alone while 60% should be attributed to anthropogenic activity." Kilde: Ziskin, S., Shaviv, N.J. (2011). Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century. J. Adv. Space Res. 40% er vel næppe marginalt og vil nok betyde en markant reduction af klimasensitiviteten i forhold til hvad IPCC hævder. Redigeret d. 29-05-2012 20:46 |
| 29-05-2012 22:00 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Når der har været et så tydeligt signal fra solen de sidste 12000 år, så er det der nok stadig.. Kilde: Bond et al. (2001). Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene. Science 294, 2130-2136. |
| 29-05-2012 22:11 | |
| kfl★★★★★ (2167) |
kristofferszilas skrev: Hej Kristoffers Jeg syntes, at du laver en stråmand på IPCC. IPCC forsøger ikke at ignorer Solen i klimamodellerne, men indtil videre har varitionen i Solen ikke kunnet forklare temperaturstigningerne. Hvis man kunne kvantificere Solens samspil med kosmisk stråling og skydannelser , er det helt sikkert, at det vil indgå i IPCC's sammedrag og i klimamodellerne. KFL Vær skeptisk over for skeptikerne.... Det er der grund til. |
| 29-05-2012 22:31 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Det eneste IPCC ser på mht. solens indflydelse på klimaet er "Total Solar Irradiance", som kun viser 0.1% variation, hvilket jo selvfølgelig ikke kan forklare noget som helst. I modsætning til dette viser kosmisk stråling 10% variabilitet og ultraviolet stråling op til 70%, så stråmandsargumentationen bliver jo faktisk brugt af IPCC. |
| 30-05-2012 12:23 | |
| kristofferszilas★★★☆☆ (852) |
Hvis man stadig skulle være i tvivl om at der faktisk er en signifikant påvirkning fra solen, kan det varmt anbefales at se denne præsentation af Sebastian Luning, der er medforfatter på bogen "Die Kalte Sonne", som virkeligt har fået klimadebatten i kog i Tyskland: http://climateconferences.heartland.org/sebastian-luning-iccc7/ |
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