PART 10/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

Global average sea level has risen 24 cm since 1850. Projections suggest that, by 2100, global mean sea level will rise between 54 cm under a "Paris Agreement" (RCP4.5) climate scenario and 74 cm under a "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) climate scenario. Current sea-level research with GEUS focuses on understanding both the causes of sea-level rise, as well as regional variability in sea-level rise.

Forskningen er klar: vandstands stigningerne er accelererende,

Peter Villadsen skrev:

Global average sea level has risen 24 cm since 1850. Projections suggest that, by 2100, global mean sea level will rise between 54 cm under a "Paris Agreement" (RCP4.5) climate scenario and 74 cm under a "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) climate scenario. Current sea-level research with GEUS focuses on understanding both the causes of sea-level rise, as well as regional variability in sea-level rise.

Det er ikke svært.

delphi skrev:


Nej det er faktisk ikke så svært

Har du f. eks. hørt om industrialiseringen?

Delphi, Maunder Minimum er temmelig ligegyldig - med mindre du er klimaforsker - hvad du jo så tydeligvis langtfra er...

delphi skrev:

Delphi, Maunder Minimum er temmelig ligegyldig - med mindre du er klimaforsker - hvad du jo så tydeligvis langtfra er...

Nej der må jeg strække våben! Denne fine og ædle kunst på linje med at kikke i kaffegrums og deslige for at finde den højere sammenhæng, der må jeg melde pas.

Dine Tarotkort er da ikke bedre end kaffegrums.

delphi skrev:

Dine Tarotkort er da ikke bedre end kaffegrums.

Som f.eks at konstatere at vandstansstigningerne er konstante som kun kan tilskrives at drivhuseffekten magter ikke af tilbageholde mere effekt fra solens indstråling selv om vi pumper enorme mængder co2 op i atmosfæren

Igen tog dine tarotkort fejl. Fordi du er cherry-picker.

delphi skrev:

Igen tog dine tarotkort fejl. Fordi du er cherry-picker.

Samlet er halvdelen af den menneskelige frembragte co2 pumpe op i atmosfæren siden 1993



Og det til trods så stiger vandstanden stille og rolig med 3 mm pr. år og påvirkes på ingen måde af mere co2.

Key Physical Ocean Takeaways:

It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence). Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled (likely).
By 2100, the ocean will take up 2 to 4 times more heat if global warming is limited to 2°C and up to 5 to 7 times at higher emissions.
Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity (very high confidence).
By absorbing more CO2, the ocean has undergone increasing surface acidification (virtually certain).
A loss of oxygen has occurred from the surface to 1000 m (medium confidence).

Sea Level Takeaways:

Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (very high confidence), as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion.
Sea level is currently rising more than twice as fast and will further accelerate reaching up to 1.10m in 2100 if emissions are not sharply reduced.
Increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall, and increases in extreme waves, combined with relative sea level rise, exacerbate extreme sea level events and coastal hazards (high confidence).

Sea Level Projection Takeaways:

Sea level continues to rise at an increasing rate. Extreme sea level events that are historically rare (once per century in the recent past) are projected to occur frequently (at least once per year) at many locations by 2050 in all RCP scenarios, especially in tropical regions (high confidence).
The increasing frequency of high water levels can have severe impacts in many locations depending on exposure (high confidence).
Sea level rise is projected to continue beyond 2100 in all RCP scenarios.
Many low-lying megacities and small islands (including SIDS) are projected to experience historical centennial events at least annually by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
The average intensity of tropical cyclones, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones and the associated average precipitation rates are projected to increase for a 2°C global temperature rise above any baseline period (medium confidence).

Ocean Warming Projection Takeaways:

The ocean will continue to warm throughout the 21st century (virtually certain). By 2100, the ocean will take up 2 to 4 times more heat if global warming is limited to 2°C and up to 5 to 7 times at higher emissions.
Projected ocean warming and changes in net primary production alter biomass, production and community structure of marine ecosystems. The global-scale biomass of marine animals across the foodweb is projected to decrease by 15.0 ± 5.9% (very likely range) and the maximum catch potential of fisheries by 20.5–24.1% by the end of the 21st century relative to 1986–2005 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence). These changes are projected to be very likely three to four times larger under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6.

Marine Heatwaves Takeaways:

Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity (very high confidence).
It is very likely that between 84–90% of marine heatwaves that occurred between 2006 and 2015 are attributable to the anthropogenic temperature increase.
Warm-water coral reefs and rocky shores dominated by immobile, calcifying (e.g., shell and skeleton producing) organisms such as corals, barnacles and mussels, are currently impacted by extreme temperatures and ocean acidification (high confidence).
Marine heatwaves have already resulted in large-scale coral bleaching events at increasing frequency (very high confidence) causing worldwide reef degradation since 1997, and recovery is slow (more than 15 years) if it occurs (high confidence).

Marine Heat Projection Takeaways:

Marine heatwaves are projected to further increase in frequency, duration, spatial extent and intensity (maximum temperature) (very high confidence).
The largest increases in frequency are projected for the Arctic and the tropical oceans (medium confidence).
The global-scale biomass of marine animals across the foodweb is projected to decrease by 15.0 ± 5.9% (very likely range) and the maximum catch potential of fisheries by 20.5–24.1% by the end of the 21st century relative to 1986–2005 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence).

CO2 Takeaways:

The ocean has taken up between 20–30% (very likely) of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the 1980s causing further ocean acidification.
Open ocean surface pH has declined by a very likely range of 0.017–0.027 pH units per decade since the late 1980s20, with the decline in surface ocean pH very likely to have already emerged from background natural variability for more than 95% of the ocean surface area.
Coastal ecosystems are affected by ocean warming, including intensified marine heatwaves, acidification, loss of oxygen, salinity intrusion and sea level rise, in combination with adverse effects from human activities on ocean and land (high confidence). Impacts are already observed on habitat area and biodiversity, as well as ecosystem functioning and services (high confidence).

CO2 Projection Takeaways:

Continued carbon uptake by the ocean by 2100 is virtually certain to exacerbate ocean acidification. Open ocean surface pH is projected to decrease by around 0.3 pH units by 2081–2100, relative to 2006–2015, under RCP8.5 (virtually certain).
A decrease in global biomass of marine animal communities, their production, and fisheries catch potential, and a shift in species composition are projected over the 21st century in ocean ecosystems from the surface to the deep seafloor under all emission scenarios (medium confidence).

Oxygen Takeaways:

Datasets spanning 1970–2010 show that the open ocean has lost oxygen by a very likely range of 0.5–3.3% over the upper 1000 m, alongside a likely expansion of the volume of oxygen minimum zones by 3–8% (medium confidence).
Oxygen loss is primarily due to increasing ocean stratification, changing ventilation and biogeochemistry (high confidence).

Oxygen Projection Takeaways:

Climate conditions, unprecedented since the preindustrial period, are developing in the ocean, elevating risks for open ocean ecosystems.
Oxygen loss between 100 and 600 m depth is projected to emerge over 59–80% of the ocean area by 2031–2050 under RCP8.5 (very likely).
By 2081–2100 under RCP8.5, ocean oxygen content (medium confidence), upper ocean nitrate content (medium confidence), net primary production (low confidence) and carbon export (medium confidence) are projected to decline globally by very likely ranges of 3–4%, 9–14%, 4–11% and 9-16% respectively,relative to 2006–2015.

Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled (likely).
By 2100, the ocean will take up 2 to 4 times more heat if global warming is limited to 2°C and up to 5 to 7 times at higher emissions.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
Estimaterne over klimasensitiviteten er således også blevet justeret kraftigt ned.

Peter Villadsen skrev:
Prøv nu at forstå, konspirations teorier er mildest talt uinteressante.

De sidste 6 års januar-marts temperaturer har været de højeste målte.

https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1251600939904987136?s=21

Kom med en syg forklaring, deniers.

Jørgen Petersen skrev:
Den røde kurve fra fra 2011-12 viser man systematisk. De år hvor der er meget lille afsmeltning udlader man behændigt som f.eks. 2016-17 og 2017-18. Det kan kun skyldes at man ønsker at skræmme folk mest muligt.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4,5,6 and surface melting7,8,9 have been driven by oceanic10,11,12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that global sea levels will rise by 60 centimetres by 2100, putting 360 million people at risk of annual coastal flooding. But this new study shows that Greenland's ice losses are rising faster than expected and are instead tracking the IPCC's high-end climate warming scenario, which predicts 7 centimetres more.

Professor Shepherd said: "As a rule of thumb, for every centimetre rise in global sea level another six million people are exposed to coastal flooding around the planet."

"On current trends, Greenland ice melting will cause 100 million people to be flooded each year by the end of the century, so 400 million in total due to all sea level rise."

delphi skrev:
Over halvdelen af den menneskeskabet co2 i atmosfæren er afsat siden 1992 se



Og siden da har havvandsstigninger udvist en fuldstændig lineær udvikling se



Stigningstakten i oceanernes udvidelse sammen med isafsmeltninger har overhovedet ikke reageret på de enorme mængder ekstra co2, som er afsat i atmosfæren over de sidste 30 år.

Eller havniveauet vil knap være steget i år 2100 i forlængelse af co2'ens ringe evne til at tilbageholde energi i jordens klimasystemer.

Læs forskningen.