PART 5/ Opdaterede Sol/Is/temp/hav data

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who was not involved in the study, said its conclusions about long-term trends were probably overstated because the quality of data from the early 20th century was poor and unreliable. The results may also reflect the fact that the northeast Pacific is an area of the globe where past studies have shown the "signal" of climate change is low relative to the "noise" of natural variability.

"There is no doubt that regionally, the changes in temperature are dominated by changes in the atmospheric circulation that likely have little or nothing to do with climate change," Trenberth said. But, he added, "this does not call into question the concept of global warming."

Frank Lansner skrev:
Altså fantastisk dette år hvordan lille Danmark kan blive ved med at undgå kulde i vores lille smørhul.
Her prognosen 6 dec fra EZMWF.
Jaja, den er langt fra sikker, men illustrerer meget godt Danmarks Non-Kulde stime.

Frank Lansner skrev:

Men SÅ !! 7 dec, så må lille DK give op og lade kulden komme???? Eller skifter prognoserne inden da?

kfl skrev:
Der en landhævning på 1.8 mm pr. år og da trenden er på 2.8375 mm. pr år, blive den årlige vandstandsstining på ca. 1.0375 mm/år eller svarende til ca. 10 cm på 100 år.

De dominerende tidevandsycler er på 0.5,1.0 og 18.61 år.

The year 2014 is on track to be one of the hottest, if not the hottest, on record, according to preliminary estimates by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

...surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)

Theis skrev:
Kjeld,

det er ikke umiddelbart klart, hvordan du har beregnet den forventede temperaturen for hele 2014, men for fuldstændighedens skyld burde man måske lige nævne de tre surfaced-based temperatursæt.

WMO:

The year 2014 is on track to be one of the hottest, if not the hottest, on record, according to preliminary estimates by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

WMO's estimater bygger netop på data fra de tre landbaserede temperturserier fra HADCRUT, GISS og NCDC.

Men jeg ved selvfølgelig godt, at klimaskeptikere for tiden er meget glade for RSS, hvis tal ikke helt følger de øvrige temperaturserier. Det kan måske kort nævnes i den sammenhæng at Carl Mears fra RSS i en blogpost har skrevet at:

...surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)

For UAH bliver det måske kun de to El Nino år, 1998 og 2010, der bliver varmere end 2014, og satellitserierne går altid temmelig amok, når der er tale om El nino år.

Jeg synes, det er temmelig klart, at de observationelle estimater for klimasensitivitet, som er under 2C, er langt mere troværdige end de modeller Mears viser i sin figur

Frank Lansner skrev:
Det har længe stået klart at IPCC og co vedbliver med at forekomme mere og mere selvsikre trods vaklende grund.

Så hvad skal man tænke når danske medier - og dermed danskerne - bare forekommer mere og mere sikre på IPCC´s budskaber?
Hvordan kan det gå så galt?

Så hvad skal man tænke når danske medier - og dermed danskerne - bare forekommer mere og mere sikre på IPCC´s budskaber?
Hvordan kan det gå så galt?

Kjeld Jul skrev:
Her er interessant spørgsmål af Roy Spencer.

OUR BEST TECHNOLOGY;SATELLITES,SAY 2014 WILL NOT be the WARMEST.
So,why have world goverments chosen to rely on surface thermometers,which were never designed for high accuracy,and yet ignore their own hightech satellite network of calibrated sensor especially when the satellites also agree with weather balloon data?

Her er interessant spørgsmål af Roy Spencer...

Hvor fandt du det i grunden??

Old photos, new insights

Greenland's glaciers retreated rapidly between 1900 and 1930 as the Little Ice Age lost its grip on the region and temperatures climbed. By analyzing early photos of Greenland paired with contemporary ones, researcher Anders Bjork with the Natural History Museum of Denmark has for the first time mapped out the retreat of those glaciers over time.

"Satellites obviously do not cover the early 1900s, when the region experienced a rapid increase in temperatures," Bjork said. But with time constraints provided by historic photographs, he and his colleagues recorded a remarkably quick ice response between 1900 and 1930, more rapid than seen in the last 15 years, he said. The new data promise to help researchers understand how quickly glaciers can react ...

Hen over året sner det mere, end der smelter, men kælving af isbjerge indgår jo også i indlandsisens totale masseregnskab.

Pt synes jeg at det er lidt sjovt at følge med i udviklingen for havoverflade temperaturer og is Øst for Grønland samt Nord for Island. 12 dec 2014

Between autumn 2010 and spring 2013, there was a 14% and 5% reduction in autumn and spring Arctic sea ice volume, respectively, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent. However, since then there has been a marked 41% and 9% recovery in autumn and spring sea ice volume, respectively, more than offsetting losses of the previous three years. The recovery was driven by the retention of thick ice around north Greenland and Canada during summer 2013 which, in turn, was associated with a 6% drop in the number of days on which melting occurred – climatic conditions more typical of the early 1990's. Such a sharp increase in volume after just one cool summer indicates that the Arctic sea ice pack may be more resilient than has been previously considered.